Westerly Forecast

[max.spock]

What do you consider to be the most accurate forecast for the westerly?

[Slappy]

TAF all the way

[Alton]

TAF then igetwind 3 km NAM then 13 km GFS then UofW

If all models agree then the odds are good

[max.spock]

Thanks guys, and do you find the timing reliable too? Since I started following the westerly closely it seems to me that there is usually an early push..say between 1 and 3 and then it plateaus/declines while the models predict the opposite.
TAF and BWD1 were definitely on my list

[Alton]

Timing in the models often agree and thus relatively accurate. The timing of the westerly can vary depending the strength of the front.

However, I believe the heating of the city (and clear sky inland) can assist air flow ... and thus boost wind strength. That might explain why morning wind in the bay (Acadia, Spanish Banks, English Bay, Ambleside ...) is delayed (compared to Tsawwassen) until the city heats up.