Weather Talk For BC no matter what you ride

Hot Water

Weather talk and On Site Reports (604)800-2770

by Slappy » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:00 pm

morrison wrote:
You should show these guys your graphs and explain how wrong they have it?

These graphs are just the EC data, I'm not making this stuff up.

I've also already said that we should start to feel the effects of global warming around here by 2040 or so. Well that site you linked says:
Independent expert research results project three key climate changes for Whistler over the next 25–55 years

That's 2043-2068 that they say these things will happen.

I took the YVR data and averaged it out over whole years throwing away years that didn't have 12 data points:

yvr-yearly.png (17.78 KiB) Viewed 3113 times

Then I bucketed it by 4 year averages:
yvr-4yearave.png (13.69 KiB) Viewed 3113 times

Then 6 year:
yvr-6yearave.png (12.79 KiB) Viewed 3113 times

Then 8 year:
yvr-8yearave.png (12.49 KiB) Viewed 3113 times

And finally 10 year averages:
yvr-10yearave.png (12.44 KiB) Viewed 3113 times

You can definitely see a small rise when breaking down the data like this. Most interesting to me is the 4 year average graph. In it you can see that while the rise from 1937 is only about 0.6 degrees the rise since the 1970 low is about 1.2 degrees.

Now a 1.2 degree change is going to be felt by humans on a 40 year span but keep in mind that's cherry picking a low to high swing out of the cycle as a whole.

I should probably mix in the new YVR data from 2013 on but it comes as a different data set from EC and I worry they moved the position the readings were taken from which can effect they analysis.
User avatar
Posts: 1172
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2013 8:31 am

by fuji » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:03 pm

Going ahead and doing the simplest thing with the local yvr data that Slappy found: if we fit a linear trend, we see a 9.5 mC/year increase in water temperature (orange line). The black line is the average (10.04 C).

yvr.png (85.01 KiB) Viewed 3113 times

If we average over the temperature in each year and do the same we get a similar increase of 8 mC/year, but the increase is a little more obvious on this scale.

yvr2.png (27.86 KiB) Viewed 3113 times

Note that this is not necessarily evidence of global warming, we should leave that to the experts. But the quick and dirty analysis does seem to show a slight upwards trend in the local temperature data.
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:20 pm

by telus022420 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:04 pm

Earth Overshoot Day
Posts: 100
Joined: Thu Jan 16, 2014 11:02 am

by gabrielb » Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:36 pm

cabinFever.jpg (33.08 KiB) Viewed 3089 times

Hope the wind shows up soon ... before we get into spacetime mathematical models
Posts: 1755
Joined: Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:13 am

by morrison » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:07 pm

gabrielb wrote:Hope the wind shows up soon ... before we get into spacetime mathematical models

I am flummoxed,
What is the connection between CC deniers and tensor fields defined on a Lorentzian manifold ?
Nexen beach has delivered solid wind the last two days .
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:24 am
Location: Squamish

by mjamero » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:18 am

I wonder if we'll see more shark sightings in our waters? :shock:
User avatar
Posts: 402
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:06 pm

by LeopardSkin » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:37 am

If it's yellow, let it mellow.
If it's brown, flush it down.
User avatar
Posts: 1909
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:01 am
Location: Vancouver


Return to Weather Talk and OSR