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by Slappy » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:00 pm

morrison wrote:https://www.whistler.ca/services/environmental-stewardship/climate-action-and-energy
You should show these guys your graphs and explain how wrong they have it?


These graphs are just the EC data, I'm not making this stuff up.

I've also already said that we should start to feel the effects of global warming around here by 2040 or so. Well that site you linked says:
Independent expert research results project three key climate changes for Whistler over the next 25–55 years


That's 2043-2068 that they say these things will happen.

I took the YVR data and averaged it out over whole years throwing away years that didn't have 12 data points:

yvr-yearly.png
yvr-yearly.png (17.78 KiB) Viewed 970 times


Then I bucketed it by 4 year averages:
yvr-4yearave.png
yvr-4yearave.png (13.69 KiB) Viewed 970 times


Then 6 year:
yvr-6yearave.png
yvr-6yearave.png (12.79 KiB) Viewed 970 times


Then 8 year:
yvr-8yearave.png
yvr-8yearave.png (12.49 KiB) Viewed 970 times


And finally 10 year averages:
yvr-10yearave.png
yvr-10yearave.png (12.44 KiB) Viewed 970 times


You can definitely see a small rise when breaking down the data like this. Most interesting to me is the 4 year average graph. In it you can see that while the rise from 1937 is only about 0.6 degrees the rise since the 1970 low is about 1.2 degrees.

Now a 1.2 degree change is going to be felt by humans on a 40 year span but keep in mind that's cherry picking a low to high swing out of the cycle as a whole.

I should probably mix in the new YVR data from 2013 on but it comes as a different data set from EC and I worry they moved the position the readings were taken from which can effect they analysis.
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by fuji » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:03 pm

Going ahead and doing the simplest thing with the local yvr data that Slappy found: if we fit a linear trend, we see a 9.5 mC/year increase in water temperature (orange line). The black line is the average (10.04 C).

yvr.png
yvr.png (85.01 KiB) Viewed 970 times


If we average over the temperature in each year and do the same we get a similar increase of 8 mC/year, but the increase is a little more obvious on this scale.

yvr2.png
yvr2.png (27.86 KiB) Viewed 970 times


Note that this is not necessarily evidence of global warming, we should leave that to the experts. But the quick and dirty analysis does seem to show a slight upwards trend in the local temperature data.
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by telus022420 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:04 pm

Earth Overshoot Day

https://youtu.be/jgbY79Opn34
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by gabrielb » Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:36 pm

cabinFever.jpg
cabinFever.jpg (33.08 KiB) Viewed 946 times


Hope the wind shows up soon ... before we get into spacetime mathematical models
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by morrison » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:07 pm

gabrielb wrote:Hope the wind shows up soon ... before we get into spacetime mathematical models

I am flummoxed,
What is the connection between CC deniers and tensor fields defined on a Lorentzian manifold ?
Nexen beach has delivered solid wind the last two days .
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by mjamero » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:18 am

I wonder if we'll see more shark sightings in our waters? :shock:
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by LeopardSkin » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:37 am

If it's yellow, let it mellow.
If it's brown, flush it down.
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