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Centennial, Squamish or neither?

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by Pavel » Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:08 pm

Hi Guys,

I’m really hoping to have my first session of the season this weekend, but the forecast isn’t looking good. What would be a safer bet, Centennial or Squamish?

Thanks,
Pavel
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by adam2 » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:23 pm

Neither look like a safe bet for this weekend from the forecasts I've been looking at.
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by Slappy » Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:37 pm

Squamish will probably have wind, it just might be gusty as hell.

Centennial only has a chance if you have a foil board.
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by Michael » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:41 am

Boundary Bay 14g17 knots now, Squamish just switched, 17g23, it might crank up there today?
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by Slappy » Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:40 pm

Warm sunny low tide bbay today, wish I was there!

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25 knots at Squamish but cold water and looking gusty.

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by Michael » Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:15 pm

Michael wrote:Squamish just switched, 17g23, it might crank up there today?


Spit is cranking W 26g30 knots!
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by imdmitry » Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:57 pm

Should we expect wind tomorrow at Squamish.
The marine forecast is 25kn inflow for today and tomorrow.
Today forecast come true - gusting to 30kn
https://squamishwindsports.com/conditio ... -terminal/


https://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e ... teID=06400
Today Tonight and Saturday.
Strong wind warning in effect.
Wind light becoming southerly inflow 15 knots early this afternoon except southwesterly inflow 25 over northern sections. Wind becoming northerly outflow 5 to 15 near midnight then becoming southerly inflow 15 Saturday morning except southwesterly inflow 25 over northern sections.
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by Slappy » Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:33 pm

You can expect wind at the Spit tomorrow, but it wont be very good wind. It will be both up and down as well as gusty.

Here is how I forecast the Spit:
1) EC forecast calling for 25 SW [exactly what you want]
2) Gradient of 6 degrees from Squamish -> Lillooet [this is good, but no gradient from Vancouver -> Squamish usually means a later start to the thermal]
3) EC Lillooet forecast calling for 30 km/h S at noon [this is so/so, a good day at the Spit will bring 60 km/h S winds to Lillooet]
4) Cloudy [this means gusty winds]
5) EC forecast for Georgia Straight calling for 5-15 S wont interfere with Squamish

Sunday wind looks even worse.
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by Pavel » Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:15 pm

Thanks Slappy,

This brings me to my original question, Centennial or Squamish for tomorrow?

You said there will be wind in Squamish, but it will be bad. Will it be sailable? How many knots do you think?

Is there a chance of Centennial getting some light wind?

Thanks

Pavel
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by Slappy » Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:09 pm

I think the wind that you are seeing at Centennial right now is that forecast from windguru and it's just shifted a bit early which means it probably wont last too long Saturday morning.

So if you get up early you'll probably get some wind at Centennial tomorrow.

For forecasting Centennial outside of storm season I do:
1) TAF calling for "Sat 8am ESE 8" [not amazing but you could see up to 12-14 in bbay with this]
2) EC Georgia Straight "southeast 15 to 20 near midnight then diminishing to light early Saturday morning" [often will forecast higher than what reaches in to bbay and as you can see it's going to die off]
3) Check windguru
4) Look for local thermal pushes, of which there are none this weekend
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