Nitnat

[arg]

Long range pressure forecast (accuracy = ?) suggests decent on-shore flow for Friday and Saturday, Sunday suggests potential to change to a Northerly pressure flow, and if that pans out, that is not good. As long as the delta T between Port Alberni and Uclulet/Tofino is respectable, and rain doesn't make it the campground, might be ok. Take everything.

[C36]

Long range pressure forecast (accuracy = ?) suggests decent on-shore flow for Friday and Saturday, Sunday suggests potential to change to a Northerly pressure flow, and if that pans out, that is not good. As long as the delta T between Port Alberni and Uclulet/Tofino is respectable, and rain doesn't make it the campground, might be ok. Take everything.

I appreciate what Alton has done in developing and sharing all of his weather tools but the Nitinaht Temp Grid has always puzzled me as I pretty sure its the Cowichan Valley that causes Lake Nitinat to draw, not the Alberni Valley as shown here on the topographic map of Vancouver Island. The current Nitinaht Temp Grid may be a closer model for China Creek/Port Alberni HQ. I understand the two maybe generally similar, but a better model for Lake Nitinat might be Port Renfrew/Town of Lake Cowichan/Duncan. Just putting the idea out there for discussion/consideration.

[Slappy]

Duncan is way too close to the water to give an indication of the thermal.

Ideally you'd use the temperature around Fourth Lake:
https://goo.gl/maps/Fh4AaXkYghR2

But since EC only gives the options of Duncan, PA, Naniamo, and since both Duncan and Naniamo are on the east coast they aren't indicative of the temperature in the middle of the island. That leaves PA as the best option.

Basically the thermal in PA is driven by the Ucluelet -> PA differential, and that same differential is likely happening just shifted 50 km south east in the next fjord over.

[C36]

Duncan is way too close to the water to give an indication of the thermal.
Ideally you'd use the temperature around Fourth Lake:
https://goo.gl/maps/Fh4AaXkYghR2...

Have you ever spent time in Duncan in the summer? Cowichan means "warm land" and the warmest part of the Cowichan region is on the east coast of the island.

"The Cowichan region of Vancouver Island encompasses 373,000 hectares (921,703 acres) of verdant farmland, deep ocean bays, whitewater rivers, sun-bathed lakes and low rolling mountains. Cowichan extends along the east coast of Vancouver Island to south of Mill Bay and north of Ladysmith, and includes Nitinat Lake and the old-growth wilderness of Carmanah Walbran Provincial Park on the west coast."

There aren't too many vineyards around Fourth Lake, but there are lots on the east coast of the island within the Cowichan Valley, including several EAST of Duncan in Maple Bay. That's because Duncan has the the warmest mean year round temperature anywhere in Canada.

"Quamichan (or Kw’amutsun) is a traditional nation of the Coast Salish people, commonly referred to by the English adaptation of Qu'wutsun ("warm place") as the Cowichan Indians, or First Nations, of the Cowichan Valley on Vancouver Island, in the area near the city of Duncan, British Columbia." source

Note Lake Quamichan is EAST of Duncan.

But since EC only gives the options of Duncan, PA, Naniamo, and since both Duncan and Naniamo are on the east coast they aren't indicative of the temperature in the middle of the island. That leaves PA as the best option...

EC is not the only source of temperature forecasts. Weather Network forecasts (7 day forecast highs, 14 day forecast highs, etc) for Port Renfrew, Lake Cowichan as well as Duncan (as does EC). From what I have seen EC's forecast for Tofino is 'dartboardish' while WN is almost good to the hour.

..Basically the thermal in PA is driven by the Ucluelet -> PA differential, and that same differential is likely happening just shifted 50 km south east in the next fjord over.

That would be like modeling Squamish on Harrison Lake - yeah there are general similarities, but they are two different systems. This can be seen by the differences in strength and time of day noted in this thread over at bwd.

Even with the Alberni Valley there seems to be few general rules about which is 'favoured' (China Creek or PA HQ) - seems local wisdom says either can be 'better' on a given day.

Just like the thermal in Squamish there is a long list of complex factors that likely include heating of valley walls, heating of the land mass beyond the immediate valley, pressure differentials, marine layer, cloud cover and on and on, which are all likely to somewhat different between two massive valley systems 50 km's apart. Just think of differences between launches that are less than 5 km apart in the Gorge (Hatchery and Marina) or on the Oregon Coast (Cape Sebastian and Pistol River) and how different they can be on any given day.

To my mind the only way it makes sense to use Tofino/Port Alberni as a tool for Lake Nitinat is if it is the best available information and I am not convinced it is. Just say'n.

[Dan]

Well after all this said, is it going to be windy this Friday to Sunday in Nitnat?

[Roxstock]

You guys seem to know what you're talking about, so do you thinks it's worth the trip Thursday night to Sunday afternoon?

[C36]

Well after all this said, is it going to be windy this Friday to Sunday in Nitnat?

You guys seem to know what you're talking about, so do you thinks it's worth the trip Thursday night to Sunday afternoon?

Port Renfrew / Lake Cowichan / Duncan Temp Grid (Thurs-Sun+)

Thurs-Sun - 1 - Port Renfrew.JPG (50.17 KiB) Viewed 14798 times

Thurs-Sun - 2 - Lake Cowichan.JPG (50.87 KiB) Viewed 14798 times

Thurs-Sun - 3 - Duncan.JPG (51.91 KiB) Viewed 14798 times

I don't see any reason not to go. No rain, warm temps, differential of 8/6/5/5 (no fog in forecast may mean 'lighter' wind - but that can change). If you look at the Nitinhat Temp Grid it also seems to be decent showing 9/8/8/9 degree differentials. I really don't forecast for Nitinat - we just go when we are passing through to/from Tofino and my son has time/interest (unless it looks really bleak - avoid rain). Take a look at the chatter over at http://www.bigwavedave.ca In the end the decision is yours. Safe travels.

[Slappy]

As I know you've been to PA lots of times I'm sure you know it's pretty much the hottest spot on the Island in the summer if it's sunny. You aren't saying Duncan is hotter are you?

Here's the last 2 weeks daily highs to compare:

PA_vs_Duncan.png (48.63 KiB) Viewed 14796 times

The thing about other forecasts is Alton's code only grok's EC's forecast so it's not like he can just swap in a different source.

I also consider the Harrison thermal to be pretty much a copy of the Squamish thermal but farther east, sure there are differences but I would use the same EC stations for forecasting them both. To note it's a full 100 km shift for Harrison.

As for this weekend, Saturday and Sunday look great, Friday probably not much fun on the beach but I think the wind will blow if you'll be out on the water in a wetsuit it wont matter.

[Roxstock]

Thanks guys. I'll bring plenty of beer to get me through Friday just incase there isn't much wind.

[Dan]

Thanks! Game is on