SE Friday - Ebey

[Chris Klohn]

Potential for another solid SE day Friday at Ebey. Slightly less wind than today. NOAA is calling 9-13 knots............should be able to multiply that by 2.5

[Chris Klohn]

Hey Guys,

All three important forecasts have been upgraded for Whidbey this Friday. Now SE 20-30 "easing" to SE 15-25 in the afternoon. Wind waves 4-6 feet.

This is the exact same forecast that delivered a full day of sub 5.0 wind at a Ebey a few days ago. Dave, Alton, Michael you guys going to try something new?

I'm guessing with "winds shifting to SE in the afternoon" in the local forecasts the wind will sit out of the East all day at Centennial before switching and building later. Great for kiting, not so great for small sails and windsurfing.

I'll check the forecast runs 24 hours out tomorrow morning. Looks like it's going to be a good one right now!

[Michael]

Thinking about it, I guess I'll make the call Friday morning. With the NEXUS it was 2 hours door to beach.

[Chris Klohn]

Nice!

Quicker than going to Columbia I'll check all the actuals and forecast changes through the early am hours Friday in addition to texting the Washington locals for you. That should give you a solid start on making an early decision. If you go, leave early to be there early.

Stay away from NOAA & anything based on the GFS. The NAM always predicts way more wind for Centennial than what actually materializes. On a SE at Ebey, it under predicts by about 5-7 knots. Ault Field TAF is very accurate but also slightly less than what Ebey sees.

The Double Bluff webcam is great but if you wait until it's light enough to see you've waited too long at home. It's also 40 km south of Ebey and falls into the Admiralty Inlet Forecast which is always lighter than the East Entrance of Juan de Fuca and doesn't represent the wind speed at Ebey............still fun to watch though.

Pressure tendencies and actual pressures are the most important things to watch as always. Don't get fooled into not pulling the trigger just because the actuals are light when there's a 5.0mb, and strengthening, southerly gradient from Seattle to Bellingham setting up

Cheers,

Chris

[Chris Klohn]

Admiralty Inlet now upgraded from SE 5-15 to SE15-25 for Friday. This is very good for Ebey, still SE 20-30 all day, when there's wind to the South as well.

[C36]

Chris: M and I are headed south. Hoping to sail both Ebey Landing and Double Bluff. Any advice on order would be greatly appreciated (tide, wind, etc). Thanks

[Chris Klohn]

Hey Guys,

Stoked your headed down. Had to fly a medevac callout and sit on the rig the past six hours. Apologies for zero updates. Double Bluff works best on a mid to high tide. Ebey gets big and smooth on an incoming tide mid Strait. Actuals look solid as do the TAF and NWWS Forecasts right now. I'm guessing fully powered 4.7ish conditions. Centennial is 12-20 out of the ENE and pouring rain........your missing nothing Post a quick OSR and let me know how it's going. So stoked you guys are trying it in a SE this time!!!!!

Cheers,

Chris

[Chris Klohn]

Hi Guys,

Forecast wind strengths are stronger at Ebey compared to Double Bluff today. Don't leave wind to find wind unless the webcam looks sweet at DB OSR when you can. Pressures look good right now and are strengthening a bit. Hoping for an afternoon of 4.2ish winds for you.

Cheers,

Chris

[Chris Klohn]

Hi Guys,

What time did you arrive at Ebey. How much time did you get on the water? Dave, you mentioned the wind had some East in it and was gusty. 5 minutes down the road there's Admiralty Bay. The beach launch is half a mile East of Fort Casey.

It runs East-West rather than North-South and is the place to go if the wind backs into to the East. There's a flat, shallow lake that is popular with the kite crowd 20 meters from the Ocean side.

Glad you guys are slowly figuring out the place. They backed today's forecast off to SE 15-25 on the 1000am run. Smith, Ault and Oak Harbour actuals through the day averaged 10-14 knots less than Monday.

Good to hear you still sailed 5.2's and managed to get your Quad wet Looks like Centennial got 30 minutes of onshore 6.0 wind today..............perfect for kiting. The webcam at Double Bluff never showed much today so you didn't miss anything further south.

Cheers,

Chris

[Chris Klohn]

Hi Guys,

Here's the winds from the Oak Harbour station today. ESE to SE the entire day which is about 30 degrees off of the ideal direction for Ebey.

Looking at the direction from last Tuesday, winds were SSE to S the entire day. The wind speeds today at Oak Harbour today looked a lot stronger than what you were seeing at Ebey.

Crescent Harbour and Admiralty Bay pickup anything with East in it very well. We used to access Crescent bay through the military base on Kalamut Island in Oak Harbour. You drive out to the southeast corner and then down a set of stairs to the beach. Not sure if it's still open?

It had Centennial like conditions with a good fetch and waist deep water on low tides. It would have seen the winds below today as you drive right past the weather station and anemometer for Oak Harbour on the service road to the point.

Oak Harbour Hourly Winds Today:

4:56 PM
SE
24mph 37mph
3:56 PM
SE
26mph 33mph
2:56 PM
SE
21mph 29mph
2:11 PM
ESE
25mph 37mph
1:56 PM
ESE
28mph 37mph
1:22 PM
ESE
29mph 44mph
12:56 PM
SE
30mph 41mph
12:24 PM
ESE
29mph 40mph
11:56 AM
SE
28mph 36mph
10:56 AM
ESE
26mph 37mph
9:56 AM
ESE
24mph 35mph
9:22 AM
ESE
20mph 29mph
8:56 AM
ESE
20mph 31mph
8:22 AM
SE
24mph 37mph
7:56 AM
ESE
20mph 28mph