100% Dave. That SW track where the centre of the low crosses mid to southern Van Isle and then keeps moving NE is the one to watch for the Lower Mainland. The American meteorologists actually call it a “Southeast Sucker.”
If the low crosses south of us we get a cold NE/E day and the wind direction never switches. If the low crosses straight overhead the wind direction and strength is usually all over the place. If the low passes just north of us we are normally golden. A stalled warm front or “lifted”warm front usually spells a day of easterly winds and steady rain at Centennial.
I always like to see a strong cold front, occluded front or bent back occlusion mentioned in the forecast discussion. It’s pretty rare to get big SE winds on a warm front. The ideal setup is a quickly deepening low where the warm front slows and cold front accelerates to join up into a bent back occluded front. These are the ones that usually unleash the big SE winds when the central pressure of the low is deep enough and the occluded front swings across the Lower Mainland.
For central pressures anything below 985mb is great if it stays on that SW / NE track. Alton’s site is so good with all the links and real time weather info. Sure beats the plexiglass over a marine chart and a dry erase marker we used to use 20 years ago to chart the pressures as the low approached.
Just like you, I always kept a windsurfing journal with the low track, forecast, actual conditions and every bit of info I could remember for the day when I used to winter sail in Vancouver. It really helped to recognize patterns and potential for the good days and limit the skunks.
Happy New Year........
Cheers,
Chris