Slappy wrote:Duncan is way too close to the water to give an indication of the thermal.Ideally you'd use the temperature around Fourth Lake:
https://goo.gl/maps/Fh4AaXkYghR2...
Have you ever spent time in Duncan in the summer?
Cowichan means "warm land" and the warmest part of the Cowichan region is on the east coast of the island.
"The Cowichan region of Vancouver Island encompasses 373,000 hectares (921,703 acres) of verdant farmland, deep ocean bays, whitewater rivers, sun-bathed lakes and low rolling mountains. Cowichan extends along the east coast of Vancouver Island to south of Mill Bay and north of Ladysmith, and includes Nitinat Lake and the old-growth wilderness of Carmanah Walbran Provincial Park on the west coast."There aren't too many
vineyards around Fourth Lake, but there are lots on the east coast of the island within the Cowichan Valley, including several EAST of Duncan in Maple Bay. That's because Duncan has the
the warmest mean year round temperature anywhere in Canada.
"Quamichan (or Kw’amutsun) is a traditional nation of the Coast Salish people, commonly referred to by the English adaptation of Qu'wutsun ("warm place") as the Cowichan Indians, or First Nations, of the Cowichan Valley on Vancouver Island, in the area near the city of Duncan, British Columbia." sourceNote Lake Quamichan is EAST of Duncan.
Slappy wrote:But since EC only gives the options of Duncan, PA, Naniamo, and since both Duncan and Naniamo are on the east coast they aren't indicative of the temperature in the middle of the island. That leaves PA as the best option...
EC is not the only source of temperature forecasts. Weather Network forecasts (7 day forecast highs, 14 day forecast highs, etc) for
Port Renfrew,
Lake Cowichan as well as
Duncan (as does EC). From what I have seen EC's forecast for Tofino is 'dartboardish' while WN is almost good to the hour.
Slappy wrote:..Basically the thermal in PA is driven by the Ucluelet -> PA differential, and that same differential is likely happening just shifted 50 km south east in the next fjord over.
That would be like modeling Squamish on Harrison Lake - yeah there are general similarities, but they are two different systems. This can be seen by the differences in strength and time of day noted in
this thread over at bwd.
Even with the Alberni Valley there seems to be few general rules about which is 'favoured' (China Creek or PA HQ) - seems local wisdom says either can be 'better' on a given day.
Just like the thermal in Squamish there is a long list of complex factors that likely include heating of valley walls, heating of the land mass beyond the immediate valley, pressure differentials, marine layer, cloud cover and on and on, which are all likely to somewhat different between two massive valley systems 50 km's apart. Just think of differences between launches that are less than 5 km apart in the Gorge (Hatchery and Marina) or on the Oregon Coast (Cape Sebastian and Pistol River) and how different they can be on any given day.
To my mind the only way it makes sense to use Tofino/Port Alberni as a tool for Lake Nitinat is if it is the best available information and I am not convinced it is. Just say'n.