Weather Talk For BC no matter what you ride

Nitnat

Weather talk and On Site Reports (604)800-2770

by C36 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:10 am

Dan/Roxstock: Hope you have a great trip! Pretty special place for sure.

Slappy wrote:As I know you've been to PA lots of times I'm sure you know it's pretty much the hottest spot on the Island in the summer if it's sunny. You aren't saying Duncan is hotter are you?...

No, I am not suggesting Duncan is hotter Port Alberni.

I am saying is that Port Alberni is located in the wrong valley. It is not located in the Cowichan Valley and is therefore not in located in the same thermal wind 'system' as Lake Nitinat. If Port Alberni is not in the same valley, it has no direct relationship to what is happening at Lake Nitinat, so at best it is a rough surrogate or proxy.

No Duncan does not get as hot as Port Alberni, but Duncan is in the same valley or 'wind system' as Lake Nitinat and given that it is warmer than Lake Nitinat would suggest that Duncan is likely a contributing factor to the thermal produced at Lake Nitinat. The fact that is does not get as hot as Port Alberni is irrelevant since Port Alberni is in another valley.

If heat were the only factor than the Alberni Inlet would kick earlier, blow steadier, blow more often and blow longer than Lake Nitinat, but it doesn't (although there are rumours of 'stronger' wind that kicks earlier further west of China Creek in the Alberni Inlet). There are other factors at play, likely including the volume of air in the valley (volume in the Cowichan Valley appears to be much larger and if you have more volume being drawn through a comparable opening you will get stronger wind) and with more volume at lower temperatures this could be one explanation as to why wind is so steady at Lake Nitinat compared to the Alberni Inlet.

Yes I appreciate drawing data from a different source has technical challenges and in the absence of anything better the Nitinaht Temp Grid is still a useful piece of information to throw into the mix when making 'go/no-go' decisions. Thanks and gratitude to Alton.

I hope that helps to clarify the points I was trying to make.
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by Roxstock » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:23 pm

Friday was poor, not enough for a 12m just bigger kites and foils. Saturday and Sunday were awesome. 6 hours of wind in the low 20s and sunshine both days. Great people and fun times. Can't wait to go back.
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by Ryancr500 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:46 am

Which forecast for Nitinat is best? I checked www.bigwavedave.ca and doesn't show much wind. Anyone going over to Nitinat this week?
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by C36 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:04 pm

Ryancr500 wrote:Which forecast for Nitinat is best? I checked http://www.bigwavedave.ca and doesn't show much wind. Anyone going over to Nitinat this week?

Ryncr500: If you were looking at BWD 2 forecast it should only be used to for watch for "inflow" (good) or "outflow" (bad), as the note in the brackets in the title suggests, and not speed (which will likely be severely understated as to my understanding the model predicts the pressure component only and not the thermal).

BWD 2 - Nitinat Lake.JPG
BWD 2 - Nitinat Lake.JPG (65.64 KiB) Viewed 6331 times

Alton's Nitinaht Temp Grid is likely a better general indicator of what you can expect for wind speed. The greater the temperature differential between Tofino and Port Alberni (hot dry weather = good, cool wet weather = bad) the stronger the wind will likely be (add bonus points if fog is predicted for the coast).

Randys Nitinat Forecast (eighth option down on the BWD "Forecasts" tab) is like the most precise and accurate, but isn't updated all that often, so make sure to check the date.

Hope that is understandable and helpful.
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