Looks like a good Locust day for Friday. The post frontal southerlies from the big storm Thursday night should hang on through the morning hours at Locust.
There's a weakening, but still deep, low and cold front set to move through midday. With a little luck the southerlies will back 20-30 degrees to southeast and the winds will keep going.
Locally still looks 50/50 for the S-SW winds.......
SE Friday
Lots of options shaping up for Friday am..............
The wind and waves are going to ramp up huge through the overnight hours. This pressure of this low should really fall and the track is setup for a big wind event for the Lower Mainland. It's not going to be on par with Saturday but it'll still be a good one. Too bad the majority of the wind is coming after dark.
There's a couple of good probabilities for Friday morning in random order:
1.) Locust will hold on to a SSE-SSW direction for several hours after sunrise on Friday. The occluded front and low will really drop the barometric pressure. The post frontal pressure rise and filling southerly winds should be pretty strong and last for a while. Best bet for the longest session is to hit the water for dawn patrol. I would guess S 25-35mph
2.) Any SE to S facing beach should have great wind waves for dawn patrol surf Friday morning. The SE winds should crank 40-60 mph most of the night veering to S just before dawn. Pick your spot for the tidal conditions and enjoy
3.) 3rd has a good chance of 3-4 hours of SSE winds for dawn patrol. As with Locust, the first few hours of pressure rise after the barometer bottoms out should lock in a pretty good southerly push on the west side of Boundary Bay. There shouldn't be an extreme wind direction swing to the WSW that would kill it quickly. The projected track of this low is setup more to gradually throttle the wind speed back versus compared to completely tanking.
4.) The WRB SW Unicorn................also good buddies with the JWSP Unicorn There's an outside chance the low will hook slightly south after it passes inland and setup the SW gradient required for an epic WRB morning. These are pretty rare but worth watching for. Look for strong SSW - SW winds forecast in the Victoria TAF. You want a rising barometric pressure tendency for a few hours at Discovery Island, Friday Harbour and Saturna Island with a falling or steady pressure in Abbotsford. Actuals at Saturna should be 25+ knots with a direction between 200 and 230 degrees. All of these variables are present when you guys get the epic SW days at WRB.
Cheers,
Chris
The wind and waves are going to ramp up huge through the overnight hours. This pressure of this low should really fall and the track is setup for a big wind event for the Lower Mainland. It's not going to be on par with Saturday but it'll still be a good one. Too bad the majority of the wind is coming after dark.
There's a couple of good probabilities for Friday morning in random order:
1.) Locust will hold on to a SSE-SSW direction for several hours after sunrise on Friday. The occluded front and low will really drop the barometric pressure. The post frontal pressure rise and filling southerly winds should be pretty strong and last for a while. Best bet for the longest session is to hit the water for dawn patrol. I would guess S 25-35mph
2.) Any SE to S facing beach should have great wind waves for dawn patrol surf Friday morning. The SE winds should crank 40-60 mph most of the night veering to S just before dawn. Pick your spot for the tidal conditions and enjoy
3.) 3rd has a good chance of 3-4 hours of SSE winds for dawn patrol. As with Locust, the first few hours of pressure rise after the barometer bottoms out should lock in a pretty good southerly push on the west side of Boundary Bay. There shouldn't be an extreme wind direction swing to the WSW that would kill it quickly. The projected track of this low is setup more to gradually throttle the wind speed back versus compared to completely tanking.
4.) The WRB SW Unicorn................also good buddies with the JWSP Unicorn
There's an outside chance the low will hook slightly south after it passes inland and setup the SW gradient required for an epic WRB morning. These are pretty rare but worth watching for. Look for strong SSW - SW winds forecast in the Victoria TAF. You want a rising barometric pressure tendency for a few hours at Discovery Island, Friday Harbour and Saturna Island with a falling or steady pressure in Abbotsford. Actuals at Saturna should be 25+ knots with a direction between 200 and 230 degrees. All of these variables are present when you guys get the epic SW days at WRB.Cheers,
Chris
- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
Some models like WindGuru and G-Spot suggest SSE all day Friday.
Others like TAF and RASP suggest SSE clocking SW Friday morning.
On standby ...
Others like TAF and RASP suggest SSE clocking SW Friday morning.
On standby ...
- rasp.jpg (206.94 KiB) Viewed 18417 times
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Alton - Posts: 7068
- Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:09 am
Some of the Forecasts show the SSW continuing in the evening. Since I cannot do a dawn patrol, i managed to re-arrange work so I can get off early and ride until dark.
Do you think this will actually happen? If so go to WR?
Do you think this will actually happen? If so go to WR?
- Will
- Posts: 65
- Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:41 am
Will wrote:Some of the Forecasts show the SSW continuing in the evening. Since I cannot do a dawn patrol, i managed to re-arrange work so I can get off early and ride until dark.
Do you think this will actually happen? If so go to WR?
Too early to tell
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Alton - Posts: 7068
- Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:09 am
I might be free to kite after 11am. Windguru looks strong sse. How's the tide in the afternoon?
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Tony360 - Posts: 330
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:28 am
Tony360 wrote:I might be free to kite after 11am. Windguru looks strong sse. How's the tide in the afternoon?
Tide is high after 3pm
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Alton - Posts: 7068
- Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:09 am
Alton, the Gale warning has been extended through until Friday afternoon now!!!! A couple of cool weather features developed around the low over the past 4 hours that should keep the winds going for you tomorrow. You should be solid SSE to S 25-35mph from first light through until noon at 3rd Enough for 5 hours of TOW if you get up early and the construction doesn't screw you over again.
Enough for 5 hours of TOW if you get up early and the construction doesn't screw you over again.- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
I sure hope you're right, Chris. I went in to work on Thanksgiving to bank a no-questions-asked paid wind day instead, and I might already be throwing that chip in tomorrow.. 
- AdrienGrelon
- Posts: 1062
- Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 3:17 pm
Now TAF is suggesting NUKING SSE to S at 3rd Ave / Centennial Friday morning ...
CYVR Vancouver
TAF Forecasted Oct 13 7:38 pm
Thu 8pm E 15
Thu 9pm-11pm E 20
Fri 2am ESE 22g32
Fri 12pm S 25g35
Fri 2pm SSW 15g30
CYVR Vancouver
TAF Forecasted Oct 13 7:38 pm
Thu 8pm E 15
Thu 9pm-11pm E 20
Fri 2am ESE 22g32
Fri 12pm S 25g35
Fri 2pm SSW 15g30
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Alton - Posts: 7068
- Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:09 am