SE Thursday
39 posts
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Gale watch was just issued at 8:30pm along with a special weather statement for NW Washington and the Northern Inland waters for this Thursday. They are calling for a strong occluded front to sweep through during the morning hours and bring SE 25-35+ mph winds with it. Looks like a good day to call in sick 36 hours out
- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
I wouldn't be surprised if Thursday turns out to be the best day of the week.
Fri may be SW and Sat easterly.
Fri may be SW and Sat easterly.
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Alton - Posts: 7070
- Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:09 am
Thursday does look good for sure Alton! Excellent looking weather models for the occluded front. It looks like it's going to crank from early morning onwards which is great for timing.
Friday looks weaker locally and I don't think the post frontal winds will fill in everywhere. Probably a SSE-S 25-35mph early am Locust session for the best bet followed up by a slim chance of SW at WRB near noon. The post frontal filling southerlies usually stay in that LaConner, Mount Vernon, Locust corridor and rarely spread westwards into Centennial and Point Roberts.
Saturday has some variables to get by with the track of the low. Some show a 955mb low, that's insanely strong, crossing the Northwest Washington Coast and continuing NE over Southern Van Isle and towards the Sunshine Coast. This would set up a massive windstorm with Storm Force 50+ knot winds at 3rd.
Other models show the low a bit weaker and tracking down JDFS. This would give you E-ENE winds all day at 3rd. Howe Sound would have nuking outflows though
The last of the models show the low moving up the West Coast of Van Isle. This would setup Comox and Columbia to go off with "lighter" winds locally.
The head forecasters won't go with a model until 48 hours out when there's this much variation from run to run. I'm sticking with door number one a Frankie's Major, Major Storm prediction
Friday looks weaker locally and I don't think the post frontal winds will fill in everywhere. Probably a SSE-S 25-35mph early am Locust session for the best bet followed up by a slim chance of SW at WRB near noon. The post frontal filling southerlies usually stay in that LaConner, Mount Vernon, Locust corridor and rarely spread westwards into Centennial and Point Roberts.
Saturday has some variables to get by with the track of the low. Some show a 955mb low, that's insanely strong, crossing the Northwest Washington Coast and continuing NE over Southern Van Isle and towards the Sunshine Coast. This would set up a massive windstorm with Storm Force 50+ knot winds at 3rd.
Other models show the low a bit weaker and tracking down JDFS. This would give you E-ENE winds all day at 3rd. Howe Sound would have nuking outflows though
The last of the models show the low moving up the West Coast of Van Isle. This would setup Comox and Columbia to go off with "lighter" winds locally.
The head forecasters won't go with a model until 48 hours out when there's this much variation from run to run. I'm sticking with door number one a Frankie's Major, Major Storm prediction
- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
Updated wx models and synopsis now suggesting a later start to the party Thursday.
The forecast low's position and track moving up the Coast from the mouth of the Columbia to Cape Flattery is setup to draw E and ENE winds out of the coastal inlets and 3rd beach.
We need the low to spin off the forecast occluded front as it nears Cape Flattery. This will cause the winds to veer from E-ENE at 3rd to SE and ramp them up.
Still going to be a windy day
Here's the 9:44pm update.......
"Now for the fun and games. The 00z NAM shows the development of a
low off the central Oregon coast that moves northward into the
Washington coastal waters Thursday night. The low deepens from 976
mb in the offshore waters off Newport OR to 965-970 mb as it moves
to around Cape Flattery late Thu night. The 4 km NAM from the
Weather Prediction Center shows 964 mb. The low will be deepening
as it moves north with 925 mb winds around 70 kt and 850 mb winds
around 100 kt. The GFS isn't quite as deep as the NAM, but looks
similar. If these solutions verify, damaging 50-70 mph winds could
impact the coastal zones for a few hours Thursday night. The NAM
marine wind guidance for West Point in Puget Sound is 49 kt for
09Z Fri (Thu night)! GFS guidance winds are about 15 kt lighter. A
high wind watch may need to be issued early Wednesday morning for
all areas for the Thursday night period if the rest of the
incoming guidance confirms what the NAM is showing.
Another low (this one a weakening 989 mb low) will move ene
through the area Friday afternoon or Friday night keeping
conditions wet and windy."
The forecast low's position and track moving up the Coast from the mouth of the Columbia to Cape Flattery is setup to draw E and ENE winds out of the coastal inlets and 3rd beach.
We need the low to spin off the forecast occluded front as it nears Cape Flattery. This will cause the winds to veer from E-ENE at 3rd to SE and ramp them up.
Still going to be a windy day
Here's the 9:44pm update.......
"Now for the fun and games. The 00z NAM shows the development of a
low off the central Oregon coast that moves northward into the
Washington coastal waters Thursday night. The low deepens from 976
mb in the offshore waters off Newport OR to 965-970 mb as it moves
to around Cape Flattery late Thu night. The 4 km NAM from the
Weather Prediction Center shows 964 mb. The low will be deepening
as it moves north with 925 mb winds around 70 kt and 850 mb winds
around 100 kt. The GFS isn't quite as deep as the NAM, but looks
similar. If these solutions verify, damaging 50-70 mph winds could
impact the coastal zones for a few hours Thursday night. The NAM
marine wind guidance for West Point in Puget Sound is 49 kt for
09Z Fri (Thu night)! GFS guidance winds are about 15 kt lighter. A
high wind watch may need to be issued early Wednesday morning for
all areas for the Thursday night period if the rest of the
incoming guidance confirms what the NAM is showing.
Another low (this one a weakening 989 mb low) will move ene
through the area Friday afternoon or Friday night keeping
conditions wet and windy."
- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
Nice........772
FZUS56 KSEW 120430
CWFSEW
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR WASHINGTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016
INLAND WATERS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE OLYMPIC COAST NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY
PZZ100-121330-
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016
SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS...FALLING PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HIGHER PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH WED. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER ONE ON FRI. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
I like the part about the winds exceeding 50mph over exposed areas near the water!
10:48 PM PDT Tuesday 11 October 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
Metro Vancouver
The first in a series of powerful October storms will approach the BC coast late Wednesday night bringing heavy rains and strong winds. A second storm is expected early Friday while a third will make landfall later on Saturday.
Rainfall will be heavy at times. Total rainfall accumulations from these storms may exceed 200 mm for West and Inland areas of Vancouver Island. Inner coastal regions may exceed 100 mm with even higher amounts near the mountains.
Strong winds will also accompany these storms and at times may exceed 80 km/h over exposed coastal areas.
As each storm develops and approaches the coast, details concerning the precise storm track and intensity will become clearer. Weather warnings will very likely be issued for multiple regions throughout the next several days beginning on Wednesday, as the first storm approaches.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to pacificstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #BCStorm.
Follow:ATOM feedATOM
10:48 PM PDT Tuesday 11 October 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
Metro Vancouver
The first in a series of powerful October storms will approach the BC coast late Wednesday night bringing heavy rains and strong winds. A second storm is expected early Friday while a third will make landfall later on Saturday.
Rainfall will be heavy at times. Total rainfall accumulations from these storms may exceed 200 mm for West and Inland areas of Vancouver Island. Inner coastal regions may exceed 100 mm with even higher amounts near the mountains.
Strong winds will also accompany these storms and at times may exceed 80 km/h over exposed coastal areas.
As each storm develops and approaches the coast, details concerning the precise storm track and intensity will become clearer. Weather warnings will very likely be issued for multiple regions throughout the next several days beginning on Wednesday, as the first storm approaches.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to pacificstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #BCStorm.
Follow:ATOM feedATOM
- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
The latest model runs this morning show a big upgrade on wind strength for Thursday with forecast 40-60+ mph SE winds. The low is slowing down a bit and deepening even further.
The crappy thing is they've now got the bulk of the winds forecast from 6pm until 6am Friday morning. Probably means E or ENE at 3rd for the better part of the day.
Whidbey will switch first then Locust and finally locally. Howe Sound should start out flowing hard as the low gets closer and the Northerly pressure gradient sets up. Keep the fingers crossed it veers SE early locally or head south of the border to Locust if the actuals spike early.
Looks like a mess for Friday morning if we get 60+ mph SE winds overnight. Goodbye tree branches, leaves and power........ Saturday is still looking ridiculous
The crappy thing is they've now got the bulk of the winds forecast from 6pm until 6am Friday morning. Probably means E or ENE at 3rd for the better part of the day.
Whidbey will switch first then Locust and finally locally. Howe Sound should start out flowing hard as the low gets closer and the Northerly pressure gradient sets up. Keep the fingers crossed it veers SE early locally or head south of the border to Locust if the actuals spike early.
Looks like a mess for Friday morning if we get 60+ mph SE winds overnight. Goodbye tree branches, leaves and power........ Saturday is still looking ridiculous
- Chris Klohn
- Posts: 1148
- Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am
Chris Klohn wrote:The latest model runs this morning show a big upgrade on wind strength for Thursday with forecast 40-60+ mph SE winds. The low is slowing down a bit and deepening even further.
The crappy thing is they've now got the bulk of the winds forecast from 6pm until 6am Friday morning. Probably means E or ENE at 3rd for the better part of the day.
Whidbey will switch first then Locust and finally locally. Howe Sound should start out flowing hard as the low gets closer and the Northerly pressure gradient sets up. Keep the fingers crossed it veers SE early locally or head south of the border to Locust if the actuals spike early.
Looks like a mess for Friday morning if we get 60+ mph SE winds overnight. Goodbye tree branches, leaves and power........ Saturday is still looking ridiculous
Chris, love the play by play! Getting stoked for Saturday and Sunday morning too. Looking at G-Spot, Friday morning could be an epic WR day if it goes SW as forecast.
DB
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ShonanDB - Posts: 592
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:52 pm
G-Spot, NAM, HRW, ECMWF and RASP are suggesting SE south of the airport Thursday morning. Fingers crossed
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Alton - Posts: 7070
- Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:09 am
Looking like a good Dawn Patrol Session! Forecast just getting stronger and stronger in the am.
Dawn at 0659 tomorrow, ETA to 3rd ave 640am pending the wind readings upon wake up tomorrow
Cya there!
Dawn at 0659 tomorrow, ETA to 3rd ave 640am pending the wind readings upon wake up tomorrow
Cya there!
- Will
- Posts: 65
- Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:41 am
39 posts
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