Weather Talk For BC no matter what you ride

SE Saturday

Weather talk and On Site Reports (604)800-2770

by Chris Klohn » Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:27 pm

Like you mentioned AG and Alton..........Thursday - Sunday all have some serious potential to deliver. Let's hope the winds come during daylight hours for you. Saturday is looking especially good 96 hours out. Looks like a crazy strong occluded front should spin off that low and give you guys SE 35-50+ mph winds. The winter season is coming early!!

Cheers,

Chris
Chris Klohn
 
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am

by george » Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:30 am

Thanks Chris. Are you in the vicinity these days?

Keep the stoke coming!
george
 
Posts: 209
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:51 pm

by Chris Klohn » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:23 am

Hey George,

I'm still flying overseas on a 4/4 rotation with BP in the Caspian Sea. No shortage of wind in Baku, Azerbaijan!

You guys are going to have a great stretch of wind from Thursday right through Sunday. Saturday is already looking extremely interesting to my eye 4 days out. There's the leftover typhoon remnants coming into the mix that will add energy to the parent low and anything that spins off it towards you guys.

The jet stream is really forecast to strengthen from Friday night into Sunday morning. This will further add energy to the occluded front that will likely swing through the Lower Mainland on Saturday.

Timing the wind is everything but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict SE 50+ mph gusts locally on Saturday. There's some extremely favourable wording already being tossed around by the head NWWS forecasters for a potential "wind event" for the Northwest Interior this Saturday.

I'll keep watching as the week moves on. You guys and girls are lucky to have this kind of start to the season. Warm temperatures and a train of low pressure systems lined up and set to march in. I wish I was camped out at 3rd for the next week instead of working :)

Cheers,

Chris
Chris Klohn
 
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am

by Alton » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:02 am

Chris Klohn wrote:Timing the wind is everything but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict SE 50+ mph gusts locally on Saturday.

Yikes! I hope Saturday downgrades to SE 30. I don't own a 1m kite.
User avatar
Alton
 
Posts: 7068
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:09 am

by Tony360 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:04 pm

Alton wrote:Yikes! I hope Saturday downgrades to SE 30. I don't own a 1m kite.


Bro a 7 is good in 56knots as I learned last year on August 30. Just keep it at 12 ;)
User avatar
Tony360
 
Posts: 330
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:28 am

by Chris Klohn » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:38 pm

How about Hurricane Force 65-70 knots and 30-35 waves :shock:

Check out the synopsis just posted for this weekend from the head NWWS forecaster...


"Next on the list: the extratropical remnants of Supertyphoon
Songda for later Saturday or Saturday night. The incoming GFS
shows this system filling as it loses tropical characteristics on
its trek across the Pacific along 40-45N, then explosively deepens
it to 950-955 mb over the offshore waters before it curls
northeast and north into northern Vancouver Island Saturday night.
This system will have 50 kt winds rotating around it over a very
large area, and the bent back occlusion to its south will likely
have hurricane force winds of 65 to 70 kt. Winds this strong -
with a dynamic fetch across the Pacific as well, will result in
very high seas most likely around 40 feet over the offshore
waters and 30-35 ft over the coastal waters. High winds appear
most likely later Saturday into early Sunday on the coast and in
the north interior of Western Washington. The high seas will cause
serious beach erosion and may result in salt water flooding on the
ocean beaches sometime between Saturday and Sunday. Stay tuned.

As mentioned above, will let the next shift issue watches if
needed after taking a closer look at incoming 00z model data. No
short term change is needed tonight. Albrecht"
Chris Klohn
 
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am

by Chris Klohn » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:02 pm

Looks good for Saturday.....

772
FZUS56 KSEW 120430
CWFSEW

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR WASHINGTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016

INLAND WATERS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE OLYMPIC COAST NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY

PZZ100-121330-
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016

SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS...FALLING PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HIGHER PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH WED. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER ONE ON FRI. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
Chris Klohn
 
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:49 am

by spinmaster3000 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:52 am

If anyone is up for a little surf, I heard that Westport is expecting 25 ft waves at 16 sec intervals...just sayin'

Chris Klohn wrote:How about Hurricane Force 65-70 knots and 30-35 waves :shock:

Check out the synopsis just posted for this weekend from the head NWWS forecaster...


"Next on the list: the extratropical remnants of Supertyphoon
Songda for later Saturday or Saturday night. The incoming GFS
shows this system filling as it loses tropical characteristics on
its trek across the Pacific along 40-45N, then explosively deepens
it to 950-955 mb over the offshore waters before it curls
northeast and north into northern Vancouver Island Saturday night.
This system will have 50 kt winds rotating around it over a very
large area, and the bent back occlusion to its south will likely
have hurricane force winds of 65 to 70 kt. Winds this strong -
with a dynamic fetch across the Pacific as well, will result in
very high seas most likely around 40 feet over the offshore
waters and 30-35 ft over the coastal waters. High winds appear
most likely later Saturday into early Sunday on the coast and in
the north interior of Western Washington. The high seas will cause
serious beach erosion and may result in salt water flooding on the
ocean beaches sometime between Saturday and Sunday. Stay tuned.

As mentioned above, will let the next shift issue watches if
needed after taking a closer look at incoming 00z model data. No
short term change is needed tonight. Albrecht"
User avatar
spinmaster3000
 
Posts: 222
Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:38 am
Location: North Van

by jtorva » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:35 pm

Alton wrote:
Chris Klohn wrote:Timing the wind is everything but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict SE 50+ mph gusts locally on Saturday.

Yikes! I hope Saturday downgrades to SE 30. I don't own a 1m kite.


Alton you might have to bust out the windsurf gear.

I'm hoping for some good TOW at WR
Jordan
User avatar
jtorva
 
Posts: 106
Joined: Fri Oct 25, 2013 1:22 pm
Location: British Columbia

by Chuck » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:49 pm

jtorva wrote:
Alton wrote:
Chris Klohn wrote:Timing the wind is everything but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict SE 50+ mph gusts locally on Saturday.

Yikes! I hope Saturday downgrades to SE 30. I don't own a 1m kite.


Alton you might have to bust out the windsurf gear.

I'm hoping for some good TOW at WR



Kitesurfing has been cancelled!!!

:lol: :P :lol:
Chuck
 
Posts: 422
Joined: Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:36 pm

Next

Return to Weather Talk and OSR