SE Tuesday

[Chris Klohn]

Nice looking parent low and associated front setting up for Tuesday. Isobar models are looking like SE 25-35 mph 96 hours out. The timing of the frontal passage should be nailed down by 36 hours out. Right now it's up in the air if the winds will come during daylight hours or not. Something to keep an eye on for sure

[Alton]

Getting excited

RASPtable.jpeg (294.4 KiB) Viewed 7663 times

[Chris Klohn]

Very nice looking setup shaping up for tomorrow. Expect Whidbey and Locust to get going early morning with winds SE 30-40mph. Centennial, 3rd, PR should follow suit with E winds 15-20 early in the morning veering to SE 20-30mph by noon. The winds look good until late afternoon / dark for the afternoon shift. Should be a great 1/2 day locally for the afternoon crowd and a full 8 hours of 7m / 4.5 wind down at Locust.

[george]

Hopefully Locustoramadrama appetizer early, GB main course/dessert late. Fingers crossed, see you guys out there.
George

[Alton]

Good sign ...

CYVR Vancouver
TAF Forecasted Mar 7 9:38 pm
Mon 10pm E 9
Tue 6am ESE 10
Tue 1pm-3pm SE 15g25
Tue 5pm ESE 10
Wed 2am E 8

[Jack1587]

Seems like every forecast except Metar Taf says around 12-15 knots? normally looking at this forecast I would have no hope what am I missing?

[Alton]

... what am I missing?

Blind optimism. On standby.

[Michael]

... what am I missing?

Blind optimism. On standby.

Boundary Bay just picked up 14g20.

[Chris Klohn]

Seems like every forecast except Metar Taf says around 12-15 knots? normally looking at this forecast I would have no hope what am I missing?

Jack, stay away from the colourful models with numerical wind speed predictions. They are almost always too general for local conditions. Look at today for example, BWD is calling for SE10-15 all day at the ferry terminal. I can pretty much guarantee it will not blow 10-15 the whole day there.

The colour graphs and models are great on the big forecasts. It's always reassuring to see all the models, marine forecasts and TAF's line up as C36 once said. Unfortunately, it's the days they don't all line up that leave you guessing when you're not sure where to start.

Get into the habit of looking at barometric pressure, wind direction and trend. Is the pressure falling or rising at the station? Is the direction staying steady, veering or backing? Is the wind speed building or decreasing? Are the gusts starting to increase? It'll take you very little time to put 2 and 2 together and start accurately "guessing" weather. There are always a few variables to throw a last minute wrench into things but predicting frontal winds isn't too hard.

If you look at wind on the water at 0930am you can see the prominent direction from YVR to Southern Puget Sound is SE.......this is good. Smith Island is the only speed in red with Locust showing 14 knots. If you click on Smith, Locust, Cherry Point, Sandy Point and Saturna you'll see all have increasing trends both on the average and gusts........this is good too.

If you then look at the barometric pressures at each station you'll see that they are dropping everywhere with a tendency of .01-.05 inches per hour. The pressures have just started falling and need about 0.30 inches before hitting bottom for this particular front........good sign more wind to come.

Based on the marine forecast and actuals above I fully expect Locust to ramp up to SE20G30 by 11am. The front is about 4 hours slower moving than forecast yesterday. Centennial should see SE20G30 by early afternoon with Locust then in the 35-40mph range.

We'll see how this compares to BWD by 6pm tonight

[Jack1587]

Thanks for all the advice. I an wanting to go into atmospheric sciences. Yeah I haven't got the whole looking ahead forecast using things other than the classics like windguru, tjs etc. But I noticed the wind staying SE and gusts not lowering and some change to the south. I'll be at BBay in 10 min